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We are told that in 1955 there were approx. 45 million people around the world travelling from one country to another. As we reach the turn of the century, less than 50 years later, there are now over half a billion of us travelling internationally. For the vast majority, their travel will be uneventful, whereas for some it may be eventful, worrying and traumatic. The current trend, in tourist terms, is to refer to those journeys where 'interesting' events may happen, as 'adventure holidays'. The truth is that many could be more aptly, though uncommercially described as 'danger holidays' and for an unacceptable number of tourists this is what their journeys have turned into. The ancient Chinese curse "may you live in interesting times", could be the motto for many of today's international travellers, be they tourists or those on business.
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It would be comforting to think that since the demise of the Soviet bloc and its confrontation with the West, that world peace had taken a few steps forward. In the sense that global, nuclear "mutual assured destruction" (MAD), is no longer a nemesis, then I suppose it has, but in terms of world peace taken as meaning 'a safer world in which to live', then we are heading backwards at a great rate of knots. There cannot have been a time when global conflict rages to the extent it currently does and social disorder affects the lives of so many people worldwide. Kidnappings worldwide have risen from 400 in 1991 to 1400 in 1997. In Colombia there are 4 a day.
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The end of the 'superpower' conflict is only one contributor to the overall demise of the safety and security we would hope to enjoy as we travel around the world. It is easy and convenient to simply believe that the more backward a country, the worse security will be and to ignore the risks on our own doorstep. The Oklahoma bombing in the States was the wake-up call to its citizens about home grown terrorism. The World Trade Centre bombing could be sidelined as a one off incident perpetrated by foreigners, but Oklahoma, Atlanta Olympics, the Unabomber and numerous incidents of domestic terror have now alerted people to the potential for social disorder in their own backyard of the United States. In the U.K. we have had a bombing campaign waged by a curiously titled 'Mardi Gras' bomber, who has targeted not only a major bank, but also a well-known U.K. supermarket chain. Now caught and sentenced, we can see that he looks like everyone's grandfather, who, by the way, carried a stun gun disguised as a mobile phone. |
In Ireland, since the cease-fire, we have had the horrific bombing at Omagh in Northern Ireland. Following the Unabomber we had a further series of home made explosive devices targeting 'gay' bars and multi-racial areas of London. Originally thought to be the work of a right wing gang, it turned out to be one individual with a warped thinking about the world and how he wants it to be.
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There are views propounded that governments will have to increasingly fight to keep the loyalty of its populace and to ensure that a growing sentiment against the centralised control of the state does not increasingly turn to violence. The Marxist sponsored terrorism of the 60's and 70's in Europe is a now a distant memory, only to be replaced by committed individuals who embark on reigns of terror, in the name of even more obscure dogma. Europe has, in the nineties, been the hunting ground of Islamic terrorists from Algeria and their bombing campaigns in France left many dead and reminded us all how vulnerable we are if we happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.
The demise of the superpower conflict has lifted the lid off the pressure cooker in which has stewed, for over 40 years, national, regional, ethnic and tribal conflict. Suppressed and controlled under the totalitarian regimes of the soviet block, there are now no former soviet republics without ethnic violence, nor few former communist countries free of the troubles created by islands of ethnic minorities abandoned in countries who no longer want them, yet whose presence gives reasonable excuse for their country of origin to enter into major conflict on their behalf. |
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From former Yugoslavia to Rwanda and the Middle East, old scores have still to be settled. The past 5 to 10 years has seen tribal violence erupt with a ferocity that continues to shock, both in the west and in the third world. The violence in Bosnia, Croatia and now Kosovo has been no less inhuman than that of Rwanda and elsewhere. The Khmer Rouge still clings onto some semblance of power and the murder of the British bomb disposal expert, following his kidnap, who was working for a charity operating in the region, has been laid at the door of Pol Pots successor. 48 million people were killed or injured in wars fought around the world in 1999.
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The International Arms Trade
It is a chilling fact that 4 million civilians have been killed in wars since 1990. According to the United Nations and the 80 something armed conflicts fought around the world in the mid 1990s, only 3 were between nations. The rest were civil wars and insurgencies. At the centre of all this slaughter is the international arms trade. Oxfam has estimated that the global small arms trade between 1990 and only 1995 at some $22 billion. Arms controls only ever work against costly and hard to hide tanks, missiles and aircraft. It does not work against man-portable weapons. |
"Small arms proliferation is a major political and security issue at local, national and regional levels in Africa," says Peter Batchelor of the Centre for Conflict Resolution at the University of Capetown. There are some 1.5 million assault rifles missing in Mozambique and since El Salvador's civil war ended in 1992, murder rates have soared by 36%, and as we report elsewhere, gunshot wounds in South Africa are on the increase. The CIA has spent $ millions to recover the 'Stinger' shoulder-mounted missiles it gave to Afghan rebels fighting the Russians. Interestingly, British Airways flights from Islamabad to London take a long westerly detour to avoid the possibility of Stinger anti-aircraft missiles. The collapse of the Soviet Union has thrown millions of weapons into the hands of criminals and terrorists. |
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Murder Inc.!
The Federal Security Services (FSS), formerly the Russian KGB was accused by some of its senior officers as being run like a private militia and a 'murder incorporated'.
Orders to murder and kidnap personal enemies were commonplace as were attempts to silence officers who protested. Officers were accused of setting up their own private criminal groups. These accusations were made at a press conference by officers who said they had received orders to murder the controversial Boric Berezovsky, one of the country's richest businessmen and bankers.
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A Col. Alexander Litvinenko said the service had almost been privatised by senior officers who behaved little better than Mafia godfathers. Supposedly, activities they had ordered included terrorist acts, murders, kidnappings and extortion of large sums of money from commercial firms. One officer claimed he had been ordered to kidnap the brother of a prominent Moscow businessman.
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Most of the 'new' markets have endemic corruption, organised crime and lawlessness on the streets. One week's news from around the world should convince even the most sceptical observer of the inherent risks of doing business in emerging markets.
There was a joke going around some few years back that officers of the anti-mafia unit of the St. Petersburg police had to queue to use the one phone in the department. The meteoric rise of Russian Organised Crime Groups (OCGs), could never have been predicted, but so it will be with China, albeit in a more controlled way. Don't believe that China has no crime. Some towns in the country are criminal controlled 'no-go' areas. Prior to China taking over Hong Kong, armed gangs of robbers were coming over the border and raiding jewellers' shops. Highly organised crime exists in China, its just that as yet we hear little about it, but rest assured that when the Western businessman turns up in force with this pockets bulging with dollars - we will! The following gives a view of how even a totalitarian regime such as China is unable to suppress criminal activity. It may be that, as with Russia, the influence of corruption and organised crime goes all the way to the top. |
In the last days of the Portuguese colony of Macao, a vicious Triad war broke out for control of the terrority's lucrative gambling industry before its hand-back to China. After 442 years of rule from Portugal, the last few have seen an upsurge of violence. Despite the arrest of ruthless gangland bosses such as Wan Kuokai-koi, better known as 'Broken Tooth Koi', a campaign of terror continued. The local gangs jockeyed for position before the arrival of the Chinese mainland's Triad gangs headed by, and this is the interesting fact, former People's Liberation Army (PLA) officers, who run substantial organisations, ably assisted by their former colleagues in the military. |
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Racketeering schemes based on the casinos makes millions of US dollars per month. Despite being behind bars, gang leaders still manage their empires and hire contract killers, mainly from the mainland. Whilst some of the remaining Portuguese have become victims of the violence, it is not directed toward visitors, but it would not be difficult to be in the wrong place at the wrong time and care must be taken. For the businessman travelling to China, events in Macao should serve to highlight that, though we sometimes don't hear of the real state of lawlessness in some of the cities and regions of China, it is there and it will get worse. As with any emerging market, the Western businessman proves an attractive and 'soft' target for organised crime.
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